This study provides the first long-term projection of the Swiss surgical workforce and its relation to procedural demand. Using national datasets from the Federal Statistical Office, SIWF, FMH, and MedReg (2009–2023), the authors analyzed trends in medical education, residency positions, and operative volumes to estimate the future need for visceral surgeons in Switzerland.
The findings show a continuous expansion of the surgical workforce: the number of general surgeons increased by 38% between 2009 and 2023, and visceral surgeons are projected to grow by nearly 50% by 2040. In contrast, operative volumes rise only modestly (+14% for appendectomies, +25% for pancreatic resections), resulting in fewer procedures per surgeon over time. Parallel developments—such as shorter working hours and a growing share of outpatient surgery—may further limit operative exposure, particularly in complex fields like visceral surgery.
The authors conclude that Switzerland will not face a shortage of surgeons but rather a shift toward a larger workforce with decreasing individual case numbers. Maintaining high standards of surgical training and clinical competence will therefore require structural adaptations in how surgical experience is acquired and distributed across the system.
Interview with Hans-Dario Grossen (Zürich)
What inspired you to conduct this study?
We observed an ongoing debate in Swiss surgery about reduced working hours, increasing subspecialization, and the balance between workforce expansion and procedural exposure. However, there were no aggregated national data showing how these factors evolve together. This motivated us to create a quantitative picture of the surgical workforce and project its development into the future.
Were there any unexpected findings?
We had a sense that the number of surgeons might have increased in recent years, but not to the extent shown by the data. The growth was far more pronounced than expected. By 2040, the number of surgeons will likely expand much faster than the population itself. This means that while more surgeons will be available, each will perform fewer procedures—especially in complex fields such as visceral surgery.
What is the direct impact on the surgeon’s work?
The findings indicate that surgical work will continue to change. With fewer operations per surgeon, a growing share of outpatient procedures, and shorter working hours, maintaining sufficient hands-on experience will become increasingly challenging. Training structures will need to evolve to ensure that surgical competence remains high across all stages of a career.
What is your learning point from this project?
The main learning point was that workforce growth does not automatically translate into improved surgical care. Without adapting training structures and ensuring sufficient case exposure, an expanding workforce can paradoxically weaken surgical expertise. Data alone are not enough—how we organize training and distribute operative opportunities will determine future quality.
Are there any subsequent projects planned?
Not at the moment. However, similar analyses across other surgical specialisations might be considered at a later stage.
